To explain what factors may effect birth
rate, I collect 7 kinds of data to form a list and calculate if there is any
correlation in 9 countries which are Italy, Belgium, France, Mexico, Bolivia,
Philippines, Greece, Japan, Kazakhstan and the last 3 countries are out group:
1.
Birth date: This entry gives
the average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 persons in the population at midyear; also
known as crude birth rate.
2.
Percentage of Catholic: It
shows how many people are Catholic in overall citizens in a country.
3.
Infant mortality rate: This
entry gives the number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year
per 1,000 live births in the same year.
4.
GDP per capita (PPP): This
entry shows GDP on a purchasing power parity basis divided by population as of
1 July for the same year.
5.
Distribution of family income
Gini index: This index measures the degree of inequality in the distribution of
family income in a country.
6.
Education expenditures of GDP: This
entry provides the public expenditure on education as a percent of GDP.
7.
Unemployment rate: This entry
gives the percent of the total labor force ages 15-24 unemployed during a
specified year.
But statistics can’t speak for themselves
so we need to analyze the correlation between these numbers. I use Pearson function
to determine what factors effect birth rate and try to explain why.
As we can see, 0.208 shows that this is
little correlation between Catholic rate and birth rate which means more people
in the countries believing Catholicism doesn’t cause high birth rate. The
prohibition on birth control doesn’t work.
From infant mortality rate we can make it
clear that how is health care in this countries. And 0.816 tells us that there
is strong connection between infant mortality rate and birth rate which argues
that the less infants die, the less born.
GDP per capita and distribution of family
income are also related to birth rate. The rich people in the countries and the
more equal family income are, the low birth rate is. The number shows that
there are strong connections between them which implies economic context is
important to explain the birth rate.
We can find that so little influence on
birth rate by the education expenditure that even Catholic rate matters more
than it. No matter how much governments spend on education, it seems that birth
rate isn’t effected.
There is a little influence on birth rate
by unemployment rate. 0.44 means that maybe unemployment rate is a factor influence
birth rate. But the connection is weak.
In conclusion, there are weak connections
between Catholic rate, education expenditures and birth rate while infant mortality
rate, GDP per capita and distribution of family income are proved more possible
influencing birthrate. Unemployment rate may influence birth rate too but the
correlation is not as strong as former variables.
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